El Nino Stopped Hurricanes from Forming in 2006

The Atlantic hurricane season is from June 1st to November 20th.   These dates include 97% of tropical storm activity.  The hurricane season peaks from August to October with 78% of the tropical storm days, 87% of the minor 1 and 2 category storms and 96% of the major 3, 4 and 5 hurricane days.  Maximum activity is in early to mid September.

The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season ended with little activity and no hurricanes hit U.S. shores.  Only three tropical storms made landfall.  This was substantial change from the 2004 and 2005 hurricane season with nine named storms, five hurricanes, two of them being major.

The 2006 hurricane activity fell short of the predictions made early in the year calling for an above average number of storms.  The hurricane center predicted 13 to 16 named storms with four to six of which could become major.  No tropical storms formed in October making this a first since 1994.  During the first three quarters of 2006 satellite phones sales were strong in anticipation of an active hurricane season.  The public had seen the devastation caused by hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 so they wanted to be prepared.  Unlike the last two years when the public had a wait and see attitude they decided to be proactive and purchase satellite phones in preparation for hurricane season.

The unexpected formation of the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean in midsummer changed the forecaster’s predictions.  They did not see El Nino coming which reduces tropical storm activity in the Atlantic.

An El Nino happens when waters get warm in the Pacific which increase westerly winds.  These westerly winds push hurricanes forming in the Atlantic away from the U.S. eastern coast.  These winds also weaken the storms as they approach.  Some say the high upper level winds chop the top off the hurricanes before they had time to strengthen.

Will we experience another El Nino in 2007?  In February of 2007 we are already seeing the early developments of the opposite of an El Nino called the La Nina phenomenon.   A La Nina could cause an active hurricane season.  More information on what we should expect from a La Nina.