La Nina could cause an active Hurricane Season

In 2006 the unexpected formation of the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean in midsummer changed the forecaster’s predictions of nine named storms and five hurricanes.  They did not see El Nino coming which reduces tropical storm activity in the Atlantic.

An El Nino happens when waters get warm in the Pacific which increase westerly winds.  These westerly winds push hurricanes forming in the Atlantic away from the U.S. eastern coast.  These winds also weaken the storms as they approach.

As a result of El Nino the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season ended with little activity and no hurricanes hit U.S. shores.  This is a sharp contrast where in 2005 three storms reached Category 5 – Katrina, Rita and Wilma were the most intense hurricanes ever recorded.  More information on the El Nino.

With a uneventful 2006 hurricane season we have seen sales of satellite phones in the early in 2007 to be lower when compared to 2006 when it was predicted we would have a active hurricane season.  Even if scientist predicts an active 2007 hurricane season we are concerned the public will take a wait and see attitude when preparing for hurricanes.  We feel this is a major mistake because when Katrina hit the coast it was logistically impossible to supply the amount of satellite phones needed for the area of devastation.

The opposite of an El Nino is a La Nina phenomenon.  On February 28, 2007 scientists at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center said a La Nina may soon arrive.  Cooler than normal water temperatures have developed at the surface of the pacific in the east central equator region which indicates the possible formation of La Nina conditions.

During a La Nina, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the southeast and cooler than normal in the northeast.  During an El Nino, temperatures in the winter are warmer than normal in the north central states, and cooler than normal in the southeast and the southwest.

Unlike an El Nino which produce westerly winds, a La Nina produces easterly winds at upper levels and westerly winds at lower levels across the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and tropical Atlantic.  There tends to be a greater than normal number of Atlantic hurricanes during La Nina events because of this expanded area of low vertical wind shear.

During a La Nina more hurricanes form in the deep tropics form Africa easterly waves.  These storms are likely to become major hurricanes threatening the east coast of the U.S. and Caribbean Islands.

A La Nina following an El Nino is a naturally occurring event that can last up to three years.  The last lengthy La Nina lasted from 1998 to 2001 and caused serious drought conditions in the western United States.

If the scientists are correct and we continue to see La Nina conditions we should expect an active 2007 hurricane season.  Those that live and work on the coast need to be prepared.  The wait and see attitude could get them in trouble, because when it is predicted a hurricane is going to hit the coast, deliveries cannot be made in that area.  We recommend preparing before hurricane season and have a plan for emergency communication by purchasing satellite phones.